Computational assessment of temperature failures in the cold supply chain: Implications for beef shelf life
Abstract
Temperature management in the cold supply chain is critical to preserving the safety and quality of perishable foods. However, evaluating the impact of temperature fluctuations on shelf life reduction remains a significant challenge. Using computational methods, including predictive microbiology and Computational Fluid Dynamics, this research models the impact of cold chain failures on beef shelf life under different failure conditions. The integration of these techniques allowed for the simulation of microbial growth under scenarios of short-term, long-term, and intermittent temperature fluctuations in the cold chain. The simulations also analyzed the effect of beef package permeability on the results. Results demonstrate that both packaging permeability and the nature of temperature abuse (duration and magnitude) are key factors affecting spoilage. The simulated scenarios indicate that even brief temperature increases can reduce beef shelf life by up to 10%, underscoring the importance of cold chain monitoring and management strategies. Intermittent cold chain disruptions were even more critical, with reductions in shelf life reaching up to 60%. Across all scenarios, permeable packaging demonstrated the ability to extend shelf life by taking advantage of the evaporative cooling effect. These findings contribute to the development of more effective approaches to monitor and mitigate cold chain failures, thereby enhancing food safety and reducing waste.
